Domestic lithium battery manufacturers are competing for low-altitude economic eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft).
Recently, battery manufacturer Xinwanda released the latest aviation power battery "Xin Yunxiao 2.0" and announced that its first-generation product has been mass-produced; on the other hand, battery giant CATL also announced that it has obtained the international aerospace quality management system certification and officially met the aviation industry standards; earlier in March, Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that it would become the supplier of low-voltage lithium batteries for the next-generation aircraft prototype of the flying car company Xiaopeng Huitian. A reporter from the China Times found that many battery manufacturers, including CATL (300750.SZ), Xinwanda (300207.SZ), Farasis Energy (688567.SH), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), Zhongxin Aviation (HK3931), and Guoxuan High-tech (002074.SZ), have successively entered the field of aviation power batteries.
Why has aviation power battery become a battleground for lithium battery manufacturers?
Many industry insiders told the China Times reporter that there are two major factors behind this: First, the lithium battery industry has fallen into serious internal competition in recent years, and companies are in urgent need of finding new market space to break the dilemma; second, the low-altitude economy is a new track, and its derived aviation power battery market is still in the research and development stage, the market competition pattern has not yet been established, and the development prospects are broad. Guojin Securities released a research report in April this year and predicted that by 2030, the domestic eVTOL battery market will reach 112.6 billion yuan.
"At present, many domestic leading battery manufacturers are actively deploying in the field of low-altitude industry, and regard aviation power batteries as a strategic track, and the investment intensity has increased significantly." Wang Zeshen, Secretary-General of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said in an interview with the China Times reporter.
"Now the lithium battery industry is seriously involuted, and most manufacturers should not just try it out, but want to make great efforts to do it, because this is a good entry point to break the current internal situation of the industry." Mo Ke, editor-in-chief of Zhenli Research Institute, told this reporter.
However, at present, there is still a big gap between "ideal" and "reality". As a new type of aircraft, the power required for vertical takeoff of eVTOL is 10 to 15 times that of ground travel, and the battery energy density requirement is much higher than that of automotive power batteries. At present, the energy density of mainstream lithium batteries is usually around 150Wh-250Wh/kg. For eVTOL, its large-scale commercial application requires batteries with an energy density of ≥400wh/kg.
This means that for most lithium battery manufacturers, there is still a long way to go to win the "cake" of aviation power batteries.
Entry: Energy density sprint
Battery energy density ≥400wh/kg is the prerequisite for eVTOL to truly fly on a large scale, and it is also the first hurdle that lithium battery manufacturers must cross to enter the low-altitude economy.
At the 17th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exhibition held recently, Xinwanda officially launched the aviation power battery product "Xin Yunxiao 2.0", with an energy density of 360Wh/kg. This is the second-generation product launched by Xinwanda since it laid out the low-altitude economy in 2023. Its first-generation product is said to have been mass-produced and completed the 100-kilometer flight verification of a 100-kilogram aircraft.
Xu Zhongling, director of Xinwanda Research Institute, revealed that the company is also pre-researching 400Wh/kg aviation power batteries. At the same time, a five-generation technology upgrade route was formulated, and it is planned to achieve the goal of breaking through 500Wh/kg of the energy density of all-solid-state batteries in 2027.
In contrast, the industry leader CATL entered the game earlier and is one step ahead in the research and development process. As early as July 2023, CATL and COMAC and other entities jointly established COMAC Times (Shanghai) Aviation Co., Ltd. In August 2024, CATL invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Fengfei Aviation, a leading domestic eVTOL mainframe, to officially start the application layout of aviation power batteries. In June of that year, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, revealed at a public event that the company had successfully tested a 4-ton civil electric aircraft and was accelerating the research and development of an 8-ton electric aircraft. The battery used in this project is a condensed state battery, with a single cell energy density of up to 500Wh/kg.
In January this year, Fengfei Aviation's 2-ton eVTOL equipped with CATL batteries officially debuted on the Spring Festival Gala. Recently, CATL also announced that it has passed the AS9100 system certification, the highest quality standard in the global aerospace field, indicating that the company's products have international qualifications in the fields of drones and eVTOL.
In addition to the industry leaders, a number of lithium battery manufacturers are also sprinting for the development of aviation power batteries. Farasis Energy claims that the company has become one of the few companies in the world that has mass-produced and installed eVTOL batteries and completed tens of thousands of actual tests, and the company's eVTOL semi-solid batteries have entered the industrialization stage. In an interview in December last year, Jiang Weiran, director of the Farasis Energy Research Institute, revealed that the company's third-generation semi-solid-state battery is in the product verification stage, with an energy density of 400Wh/kg.
In addition, Ji Yajuan, director of the Frontier Materials Research Institute of EVE Energy, revealed at an event in April this year that the company's silicon-based soft-pack battery technology has made significant progress, with a product energy density of up to 380Wh/kg, which can provide power support for low-altitude aircraft. In March this year, Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that the company had received a supplier designated development notice from the flying car company Xiaopeng Huitian, and would provide the latter with the next-generation prototype low-voltage lithium battery.
"At present, the leading battery manufacturers have regarded aviation power batteries as the 'second growth curve', and R&D investment has continued to increase. The industry as a whole is in the 'technical verification-small batch trial production' stage." Zhang Ruifeng, president of Shenzhen Automotive and Aviation Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Times that the low-altitude economy has become a strategic stronghold for battery manufacturers. The core lies in the triple drive of policy dividends, technological upgrades and market blue oceans. From the perspective of technological iteration needs, traditional automotive power battery technology is approaching saturation, and aviation power batteries, as a new track, require higher energy density, higher power density and extreme environment reliability. This provides battery manufacturers with a "new battlefield" for technological breakthroughs. Cutting-edge technologies such as lithium metal batteries and solid-state batteries can bypass traditional lithium battery patent barriers and achieve overtaking in lanes.
"The current international competition in the field of aviation power batteries presents a 'Three Kingdoms' situation. First, international giants such as SES in the United States and Bosch in Germany have entered the supply chain of eVTOL leading manufacturers such as Joby by virtue of their leading lithium metal battery technology, but their cost control ability is weak, and the cost per Ah is 2-3 times that of domestic companies; second, domestic leading companies rely on supply chain cost advantages and policy support to dominate the medium and low power fields (such as drones below 100kW), but the high-end market (such as manned eVTOL) still needs to break through the airworthiness certification barrier; third, cross-border players such as GAC Aion, Geely and other car companies have developed their own batteries, trying to open up the 'vehicle-battery' closed loop, but their aviation technology accumulation is insufficient, and it is difficult to shake the position of professional battery manufacturers in the short term." Zhang Ruifeng said.
Dilemma: Solving the unreachable triangle
The so-called aviation power battery refers to the power battery used by low-altitude aircraft eVTOL. eVTOL can be divided into manned and cargo-carrying eVTOL. Cargo-carrying eVTOL is equivalent to large drones, while manned eVTOL is equivalent to small aircraft. The latter is the main direction of low-altitude economic development and the main target of major lithium battery manufacturers.
Compared with new energy vehicle batteries, aviation power batteries have more stringent requirements on performance indicators. Wang Zeshen introduced that this is mainly reflected in three aspects. First, the energy density needs to exceed 400-500Wh/kg, far exceeding the 200-300Wh/kg of automotive batteries, so as to meet the endurance and load requirements of the aircraft; secondly, the power output needs to take into account 8-10C rate takeoff and landing and 3-5C cruising, and the battery needs to have high-rate discharge capability; finally, the safety needs to meet the zero failure risk under extreme conditions (such as 15-meter drop, 20℃ low temperature), and redundant power supply needs to be guaranteed in case of failure.
Because of this, high energy density, high charge and discharge rate, and high safety are also called the "unreachable triangle" of aviation power batteries. The solution for major lithium battery manufacturers is to achieve a balance between the three with new technologies, including solid-state batteries and metal lithium batteries. For example, CATL has increased the energy density to 500wh/kg through condensed batteries; Xinwangda first took the semi-solid battery route and is developing all-solid-state batteries to improve energy density and safety.
However, the current solid-state battery technology has not yet matured, so battery manufacturers still need to make trade-offs among the three. Xu Zhongling once revealed in an interview: "For example, in some high-frequency take-off and landing short-distance scenarios, we will sacrifice some battery charging speed and use battery replacement to solve the reliability problems of other performance."
Wang Zeshen told reporters that the current aviation power batteries are still facing three major technical bottlenecks. On the one hand, the energy density is limited. Although solid-state batteries are expected to break through to 400-500Wh/kg, they are limited by interface contact, thermal stability and high cost, and it is difficult to commercialize in the short term. On the other hand, it is difficult to balance power and energy density. It is necessary to break through the "seesaw effect" through material innovation and structural design to meet the needs of all stages of flight. In addition, the battery is not adaptable to extreme environments, and there is a lack of aviation-specific certification system, so the cost remains high. These challenges urgently require a coordinated breakthrough in materials, system design and airworthiness standards.
An eVTOL company executive told our reporter that the aviation power batteries of domestic battery manufacturers are just starting out and cannot fully meet the performance requirements of large-scale commercial use of eVTOL, and "range anxiety still exists objectively."
"As far as I know, domestic eVTOL products now generally use domestic batteries. However, the aviation power batteries of domestic battery manufacturers are just starting out and cannot fully meet the performance requirements of large-scale commercial use of eVTOL, and range anxiety exists objectively." Chen Yan, chief strategy officer of Zero Gravity Aircraft Industry (Hefei) Co., Ltd., a domestic eVTOL host manufacturer, said in an interview with our reporter that in order to effectively solve the problem of range anxiety, the company's fixed-wing aircraft and multi-rotor eVTOL products have adopted a battery replacement design. It is optimistically estimated that aviation power batteries are expected to become a large-scale market like new energy vehicles in the next five years, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain such as OEMs and battery factories will form a relatively compatible development situation.
Chen Yan believes that in the future, aviation power batteries need to improve performance in two major aspects. One is to make further breakthroughs in battery energy density, and the other is to further improve safety, especially thermal runaway. Specifically, he believes that the requirements for batteries for large-scale commercial applications of eVTOL include energy density ≥ 400wh/kg and cycle life ≥ 2000 cycles.
"As far as ternary lithium batteries are concerned, the development direction is likely to be that the 46 series battery cells will become the first choice for eVTOL. It remains to be seen when solid-state batteries can meet this demand. At present, we use the domestically produced ternary lithium batteries with the highest energy density, and the battery cell energy density is 320wh/kg. However, in addition to ternary lithium battery manufacturers, we have also established cooperative relationships with metal lithium batteries and hydrogen fuel cell companies." Chen Yan said.
Future: When can it be profitable?
Although technology research and development has not yet kept up with market demand, aviation power batteries have shown a relatively large market prospect.
Zhang Ruifeng introduced that in the short term (2025-2027), the application scenarios of aviation power batteries are mainly drone logistics, sightseeing, etc., with a demand scale of about 5 billion to 8 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in 300Wh/kg lithium iron phosphate and 400Wh/kg ternary batteries. In the medium term (2028-2030), with the gradual commercialization of manned eVTOL, 500Wh/kg lithium metal batteries will become the mainstream, with a market size exceeding 30 billion yuan and an annual compound growth rate of more than 50%. In the long term (after 2030), with the maturity of "hydrogen-lithium battery" hybrid technology, the aviation power battery market may further expand, superimposed with derivative demands such as energy storage and aviation emergency power supply, the overall scale is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan.
Where does the 100 billion market for aviation power batteries come from? There are two major reasons behind this: On the one hand, batteries, as the core components of eVTOL, are expensive and account for a high proportion of the total machine cost. "The cost of eVTOL batteries is directly related to the supply chain integration capability, and is also directly related to the supply volume. Currently, eVTOL batteries are not standardized shelf products, and all need to be customized. Therefore, the battery price cannot be cheap, especially compared with automotive batteries, which can be said to be quite expensive. In the BOM cost, together with the motor and electronic control, it will account for a quarter or even a third of the total cost of an eVTOL." Chen Yan introduced to reporters.
On the other hand, it is affected by the replacement frequency of eVTOL batteries. Chen Yan said: "According to the current technical level of the battery industry, an eVTOL battery can be used for 5-10 years, depending on the number of cycles of the battery itself and the specific application scenario. According to a general assessment, the eVTOL battery market will start to grow in volume in 3 years, and the shipment volume will be one order of magnitude higher than now, and may be another order of magnitude in 5 years."
According to a research report released by Guojin Securities in April this year, the domestic eVTOL battery market will reach 112.6 billion yuan by 2030, including 9.8 billion yuan of the original equipment market and 102.8 billion yuan of the aftermarket market.
In the pre-installed market, according to the "Passenger eVTOL Application and Market White Paper", the cumulative domestic eVTOL demand in 2030 is expected to be 16,316. Assuming that a single eVTOL has a charge of 200kWh and a price of 3 yuan/Wh (the price of aviation-grade batteries is one order of magnitude higher than that of automotive batteries), the corresponding single-machine battery value is 600,000 yuan, and the corresponding pre-installed market is about 9.8 billion yuan.
The aftermarket is more elastic due to the frequency of replacement. It is estimated that under the assumption of 8 flights per day and 1,000 cycles of battery cycle life, the number of replacements of eVTOL batteries reaches 14 times. In the 20-year life cycle of eVTOL, the cumulative domestic eVTOL demand in 2030 is expected to be 16,316. Assuming that the average replacement price is 450,000 yuan per unit, the battery aftermarket will provide a cumulative battery of about 102.8 billion yuan.
The aviation power battery market has a promising prospect, but the commercialization timetable is still unclear. Wang Zeshen believes that the commercialization process of aviation power batteries depends on the coordinated promotion of technological breakthroughs, airworthiness certification and market demand. At present, technologies such as high-energy density, high-safety solid-state batteries and lithium-sulfur batteries are still in the R&D verification stage, and large-scale production and cost control are not yet mature. At the same time, the airworthiness standards are strict and the certification cycle is long, requiring the upstream and downstream of the industry chain to work together to tackle the problem. Although emerging scenarios such as eVTOL bring potential demand, demonstration operations are still the main focus in the short term, and large-scale commercial use is expected to take 5-10 years.
Therefore, it is currently unknown when aviation power batteries can bring profits to lithium battery manufacturers. However, in Mo Ke's view, aviation power battery technology requirements are more stringent and gross profit margins will be higher, which means that the production threshold for corporate profitability will be lower than that of new energy vehicle batteries.
Zhang Ruifeng believes that aviation power batteries have entered the stage of "technical breakthroughs and scenario implementation in parallel" from the "conceptual period". The next 3-5 years will be a critical period for industry differentiation. Companies with technical reserves (such as lithium metal/solid-state batteries), supply chain integration capabilities (such as joint ventures with material manufacturers) and policy resources are expected to be the first to make profits.
“For manned eVTOL batteries, lithium metal batteries are expected to complete airworthiness certification and be installed in small batches between 2026 and 2028, but the initial cost is high, and the cost of a single battery is more than 1 million yuan, the company may achieve break-even through government subsidies, and in the long run it needs economies of scale to reduce costs, that is, the target cost is less than 5,000 yuan/kWh." Zhang Ruifeng said.
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